Economic interdependence between nations is a reality of today. Even countries like the US or China are not totally self-reliant. An economic shock in one region sends waves throughout the world. The second trend is the explosive growth in information technology and the reach of the media. For example a violent happening in the Middle East moves people in Pakistan to protest.A corollary of these development is that weak nations, especially economically weak nations like Pakistan, face greater challenge to their sovereignty. An event in the commodities market in Chicago has a direct impact on the price of cotton in Pakistan. We are painfully aware of the direct negative impact of the rise in the price of crude oil in the international market.
Somewhat different from our security pundits, I look at national security without using the word ‘strategic’.
There has been no fundamental change in the sweep of history. The major global powers and dominant regional groups want to continue their domination of the worlds markets and resources. The nations that form this group are: the US, western Europe, Scandinavia, Russia and Japan. Emerging powers like China, India, South Korea, Australia and the like want to expand their sphere of influence to gain access to resources and expand their markets. This, of course, causes conflict.
In essence the great game continues. The race for markets and resources results in power play, domination of trade routes, control of countries and possible wars and conflict by other means. The west’s hold over oil reserves is one classic example. The so-called spring offensive in Libya had more to do with the control of oil than with human rights and democracy.
Western presence in Afghanistan, besides fighting terrorism, has to do with the domination of the energy-rich Central Asian states and check mating China. The cold war between the US and China has more to do with the domination of markets in South East Asia and resources in Africa and not just about human rights and democracy. A case in point is the turbulence in Balochistan which is intensified by the interests of external powers.
Another major factor in the global game is the competition between various ideologies like democracy, Communism, and religiosity. While communism has almost died, extremism and intolerance are causing conflict within and between nations. We are painfully aware of that in Pakistan; but let us not forget the devastation around the world caused by the likes of Ayatollah Cheney and Maulana Wolfowitz.
Iran, which was our staunch ally in 1965, now looks at us with suspicion and we seem to have a competitive relationship with them in Afghanistan. Western pressure on Iran to stop going nuclear will have an impact on Pakistan’s energy plans as the US is a major obstacle to the gas pipeline from Iran to Pakistan.
With or without US presence, Afghanistan will continue to remain unstable for a variety of reasons. Despite what Pakistan has done for Afghanistan over the decades, a large number of Afghans mistrust us. Our alliance with the US to fight the Taliban in Afghanistan has fired up militancy and brought havoc inside Pakistan. The growing Indian presence in Afghanistan also gives sleepless nights to our military planners.
India is fast becoming a major regional power because of its economic growth and military muscle. It has developed strong links with Afghanistan and has growing relations with Iran. Today it is also a darling of the west, especially the US. India, I believe, has occupied critical space almost all around us. Because of the weakness of our economy it will be extremely difficult for Pakistan to maintain a military balance with India. Developing a stable and working relationship is critically important but as the current situation on the Line of Control shows, India will most likely continue to remain a security threat.
With a troubling global and regional situation the only good news is the good relations we have with China, which continues to be a dependable friend and ally.
Pakistan is very well placed as the central hub of our region. The country is protecting the eastern flank of the oil-rich Middle East and is the gateway to the resource-rich Central Asian states, and a land and costal link between the Middle East and India. A north-south energy and trade corridor would bring millions to our coffers. Our current government, like the Musharraf government, has some grand plans of exploiting our assets. Hopefully, performance will match rhetoric.
A review of our security environment would be incomplete looking at the domestic front. Though we have many ailments, the major domestic problems are: a weak economy, poor governance and of course an aggressive insurgency, especially in Fata, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Karachi, our economic hub, continues to remain turbulent. There are signs of eincreasing radicalisation in southern Punjab.
As a matter of fact our external security challenges pale in comparison with our domestic challenges. A thriving militancy, if not arrested soon, will ruin all our grandiose plans of an economic revival. It is time for the current government to take charge and display leadership, commitment and wisdom.
The primary threat to our national security today is internal and not external. Poor leadership, a weak economy, poor governance, and injustice in our society feed the threat posed by intolerance and militancy. Yes, we are an Islamic state but we seem to be unsure of what that means. Do we follow the Turkish model, the Iranian model or the Afghan model or expand on what the Quaid-e-Azam wanted? My fear is that a well-organised minority is likely to take the silent majority in a direction it does not want to go. Our present economic state is unsustainable. We seem to be living on uncontrolled foreign and domestic borrowing.
India will continue to be our adversary in the coming years and we need to defuse this threat diplomatically and politically. Use of force or proxies is no more an option. Afghanistan, with or without foreign presence, will continue to be unstable and will also be the cause of instability in Pakistan. The US has badly failed in Afghanistan and will try to make us the fall guy.
My only recommendation is that we get our house in order and stop blaming the world for our ills. Saying no to foreign aid will go a long way in restoring our dignity. Sovereignty cannot be demanded through loud rhetoric but will flow out of internal strength and national cohesion.
The writer is a former general, ambassador to the US and national security adviser.
Email: balusa@hotmail.com
Source: www.thenews.com.pk
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